The future compound growth rate of soft magnetic demand in the photovoltaic field is about 31%
Photovoltaic power station projects have entered the era of “grid grid parity”, and capital investment has experienced explosive growth. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and the International Energy Agency, in 2021, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in the world and China will be 175GW and 55GW respectively. The Energy System Plan requires accelerating the construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects. It is estimated that the global new photovoltaic installed capacity will be 250GW in 2022, and it is expected to reach 518GW in 2025, with a CAGR of about 30% from 2022 to 2025.
The increase in distributed proportion drives the rapid growth of demand for high-performance soft magnetic materials. Distributed photovoltaic power station is a new type of power generation and comprehensive utilization of energy with broad development prospects. It has the advantages of flexible and adjustable scale, less pollution, and high utilization rate. In March 2022, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development’s “14th Five-Year Plan for Building Energy Conservation and Green Building Development” proposed that by 2025, the country’s new building solar photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 50GW. In May 2022, the European Union released a solar energy strategy, proposing to fully develop rooftop solar energy. Under the trend of global carbon reduction and energy independence, distributed photovoltaics may usher in a historic opportunity. From 2017 to 2022, my country’s distributed photovoltaic installed capacity will expand from 19.4GW to 51.1GW. The development of distributed photovoltaic power plants has led to an increase in the demand for string inverters. The penetration rate of string inverters in China has increased from 38% in 2017 to 59% in 2022, which is good for the metal soft magnetic powder core market. At present, Huawei has launched a 325KW string inverter, which will replace the 500KW centralized inverter. In the future, high-efficiency and low-cost string inverters will further expand their market share, and the demand for metal soft magnetic powder core materials will continue to be strong.
The demand for inverter replacement also brings a considerable incremental market for metal soft magnetic powder cores. The life of photovoltaic modules is generally about 20-25 years, and the inverter needs to be replaced at least once during the life cycle of the modules. Assuming that the inverter is replaced every 10 years, the global PV inverter replacement demand is expected to be 51GW in 2025. soft magnet in the photovoltaic field
It is estimated that the demand for metal soft magnetic powder cores in the field of photovoltaic inverters will reach 78,500 tons in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 31%. According to industry production data, the current soft magnetic consumption in the photovoltaic field is 200 tons/GW. Considering that material upgrades may reduce the unit consumption in the photovoltaic field, it is conservatively estimated that the unit soft magnetic consumption in the photovoltaic field will be 180 tons/GW in 2025. According to calculations based on the proportion of 55% of the world’s distributed photovoltaic power plants in 2025, the consumption of metal soft magnetic powder cores for photovoltaic inverters in 2025 will be 78,500 tons, with a three-year compound growth rate of 31%. soft magnet in the photovoltaic field
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