New energy vehicles has increased up supply of high-end magnetic materials
According to the above calculations, the largest demand for permanent magnets is high-performance NdFeB, and the largest demand for soft magnetic is silicon steel, followed by ferrite permanent magnets and alloy soft magnetic powder cores, of which high-performance NdFeB and alloy soft magnetic powder The core 2021-2025 CAGR is 39.51%/47.53%.
In terms of consumption, the demand for the two will reach 105,800/38,200 tons in 2025, and the downstream market share of new energy vehicles will also increase from 28.84%/5.89% by 13.40 and 8.48 percentage points.
In terms of supply, we predict that the output of high-performance NdFeB and alloy soft magnetic powder cores will reach 130,000 tons and 197,800-237,200 tons by 2025, corresponding to a supply-demand gap of 124,500 tons for high-performance NdFeB cores in 2025, and alloy soft magnetic powder The core supply and demand gap is 10,000-49,500 tons. Assumptions: (1) According to Frost & Sullivan data, it is assumed that China’s high-performance NdFeB production will gradually increase from 70% to 80% of the world’s total. (2) Due to the lack of data on the global production of alloy soft magnetic powder cores in 2020, it is calculated based on the 20,000 tons of Platinum New Materials’ production in 2020 and its market share of 15.60% in 2020, and assuming a pessimistic/optimistic situation, the global production will be Growing at a rate of 8%/12%.
New energy vehicles has increased up supply of high-end magnetic materials
Industry Status and Competitive Landscape
(1) High-performance NdFeB: The industry barriers are high, and the voice of domestic enterprises has increased.
1. High barriers to entry and industry barriers
There are four main barriers in the high-performance NdFeB industry: technical barriers, patent barriers, customer barriers, and capital barriers. (1) Technical barriers: The cost of raw materials in the magnetic material industry accounts for 50%-70% of the production cost. It is necessary to carry out differentiated development and manufacturing according to the specific needs of different downstream industries and customers. The quick-setting sheet casting technology in the production process 1. The sintering technology has a great influence on the grain size, squareness, uniformity and consistency of the product, so the added value of technology in the production cost is relatively high. (2) Patent barriers: Hitachi Metal has made a global patent layout for NdFeB technology, binding core patents with peripheral patents. If Chinese companies want to export, they must obtain patent authorization from Hitachi Metal. (3) Customer barriers: high-performance NdFeB Downstream customers have higher requirements on industrial performance, consistency and stability, and require a longer certification period. At the same time, they have strong stickiness after certification. Once a cooperative relationship is established, customers will not easily change suppliers. (4) Funding barriers: High-performance NdFeB needs to invest a lot of money in the R&D and production stages to obtain differentiated advantages in product performance and large-scale production, and the R&D competition in the industry is fierce. Major manufacturers are committed to improving R&D Low-heavy rare earth products are used to reduce costs, and the demand for funds is large, so it is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to participate.
2. Development trend: Domestic enterprises have increased voice, and high-end products still have room for improvement
(1) The right to speak of domestic high-performance NdFeB enterprises is gradually increasing: From the perspective of the current global rare earth permanent magnet material industry competition pattern, overseas sintered NdFeB manufacturers mainly include Japan’s Hitachi Metals, TDK, Shin-Etsu Chemical and Germany VAC And several other enterprises, China’s NdFeB enterprises have developed rapidly and have strong competitiveness. According to data from Frost & Sullivan and the Rare Earth Industry Association, domestic production of high-performance NdFeB has increased from 62.08% in 2016 to 69.68% in 2020, and the market share of domestic high-performance NdFeB enterprises has gradually increased.
(2) The competitive landscape of the domestic NdFeB industry is clearly differentiated, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Most enterprises in the industry are small in scale and backward in technology, and can only produce low-end NdFeB products. A few enterprises such as Zhongke Sanhuan, Antai Technology, Ningbo Yunsheng, Jingci Materials, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Yingluo Hua, Dadixiong, etc., can continuously invest in research and development, and focus on providing high-performance NdFeB products to customers in specific fields. Judging from the proportion of domestic high-performance NdFeB production in NdFeB magnet production, it will increase to 30.54% in 2021, an increase of 9.35 percentage points from 2016, and there is still room for substitution.
(3) Reduce costs and increase efficiency around high-performance NdFeB products. Generally speaking, the main cost of NdFeB products is raw material cost, accounting for about 75-90%, mainly composed of iron (69%), neodymium (22%), praseodymium (5%), dysprosium (1%), terbium ( 1%), among which heavy rare earth dysprosium and terbium are relatively scarce and expensive. It has become a market consensus to develop high-coercivity products with trace amounts of dysprosium and dysprosium-free products to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
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